Why Vote For Bernie (3)

This is What Will Happen at the Democratic Convention

 

better math image

Can Sanders do it? Or is Clinton truly inevitable?

Math vs. Media: Part One

Bernie Sanders has vowed to fight relentlessly for the 2016 Democratic Party’s nomination up to the convention and, despite the apparent consensus of the media’s talking heads that the campaign is a lost cause, he has held fast to his claim that there is a “narrow path to victory.” I am reminded of Galadriel’s ominous words of advice, in the Fellowship of the Ring: The quest stands upon the edge of a knife — stray but a little, and it will fail…

It has even become something of a weekly occurrence for Hillary Clinton and her Wallstreet-backed campaign to imply, insinuate, or flat-out demand that Sanders withdraw his bid for the nomination — they are growing increasingly indignant about the fact that Sanders is trying to win. Which brings us to the heart of the issue — can Bernie Sanders–can we–win the delegates needed for the nomination?

The answer to this question is as simple as it is misleading — No. No, my friends, we cannot. And yet–! And yet, neither can Hillary Clinton — and I am going to show you what the media is willfully hiding from you. I am going to show you why, using the one thing that even the media can’t hide: Math.

Why Clinton Will Not Secure the Nomination, According to Math

According to the Green Papers, Clinton stands (today, April 28th) with 1,664 pledged delegates, while Sanders has gathered 1,371. The amount of delegates needed to secure the nomination is 2,383 and, if you’ll pardon me for my use of arithmetic, I will now demonstrate why that number is hopelessly out of reach for the Clinton campaign.†

Hillary needs 719 more delegates to reach 2,383 because:

2,383 – 1,664 = 719

Now, the pledged delegates that are available to grab in the remaining states all-together amount to 1,016 and in order to attain that blessed number, Clinton will have to win an average of 70.7% of the remaining states. This is because:

719 ÷ 1,016 = 0.707677 or approximately 71%

You might be thinking that 71% is not such an unattainable number for Hillary and her powerful Wallstreet backers — you might be thinking that but you’d be betting against longer odds than would be wise. You see, of the 1,016 delegates remaining, 475 of those delegates are to be won in California, alone — California, which has a semi-open primary. California, where Clinton is polling at a mere 49%. California, where Clinton’s support has been declining as the Sanders Campaign gains visibility and momentum. California — the ace that Sanders, as much as the media, have concealed up his sleeve.

It is no secret that Sanders, a previously invisible independent senator from the tiny state of Vermont, consistently climbs in the polls as he begins to campaign in the weeks before each state has had its primary. You don’t have to take my word for it — check the poll-histories for yourself or read this.

Because Bernie Sanders performs at his absolute best in open primaries and because he consistently rises in the polls, while Clinton consistently falls, it is extremely unlikely that Clinton will perform better than 49 points, let alone win the contest. Let’s do some more math:

Of the 475 delegates available in California on June 7th, lets say Hillary takes 49% of those (even though she will almost certainly take less). That would give her 232.75 delegates, which we’ll round up to an even 234.

475 x 0.49 = 232.75

Next, let’s add that to her current total of 1,664, bringing her up to 1,897. Now, she needs an additional 486 delegates to reach the magic number of 2,383, right? Let’s find out how many delegates Clinton would have to win in the remaining states (besides California, of course).

Of the 541 delegates left, once the 475 CA delegates have been subtracted from the 1,016 delegate total, Clinton is going to have to win almost 90% of the remaining non-California delegates! This is because, when you divide the number of delegates that Clinton needs after California by the number of delegates remaining after California, you get 0.898 or 89%, rounded down:

486 ÷ 541 = 0.898 or 89.8%

Now, how likely does that sound? It’s not likely in Oregon, a fairly progressive state that shares its general attitudes with Washington, a state that Sanders won with about 70% of the vote. It’s not likely in West Virginia, either, where Sanders is currently leading in the polls. Nor is it likely in Indiana where Sanders and Clinton are almost neck-and-neck, which votes on May 3rd. That nomination is feeling a lot further away now, isn’t it?

Okay, okay — maybe you’re thinking, “John, I think you’re being unfair, Clinton could certainly win California.” To which I would reply: I admire your optimism, my friend — and since you’re so optimistic, let’s run those numbers again — but this time, let’s assume that Clinton, for whatever reason, defies the consistent trends that have prevailed over the entire primary season. Let’s say, she jumps up 11% now, winning the California primary with 60% of the vote. So:

475 x 0.6 = 285

Now, add the 285 delegates to Clinton’s current total:

285 + 1,664 = 1,949

But:

2,383 – 1,949 = 434

So, Clinton will still need to scrape up 434 delegates somewhere other than California, some how. Which means — Hold on, first we have to figure out how much of the remaining delegates she’ll have to win:

434 ÷ 541 = .802218 or 80%

Wow! Even if Clinton actually wins California with 60% to Sanders with 40%, she will still have to secure about 80% of the remaining vote! Again, this certainly doesn’t seem likely in Oregon, West Virginia, or Indiana, which means the actual percentage would climb each time she failed to take 80% of a state! Now, are you starting to see why I am saying that Clinton will not be securing the nomination before the convention?

Why Sanders Will Win, According to Math

If you’ve found yourself thinking, “Well, Sanders won’t secure the nomination, either!” You are almost 100% right! Well, 99.6% right, anyway. Because, if we take Sanders’ current delegate total of 1,371, subtract that from the magic 2,383, then divide that by the remaining available delegates, we get 0.996, see:

2,383 – 1,371 = 1,012

1,012 ÷ 1,016 = 0.996 or 99.6%

Therefore, Sanders would have to secure a whopping 99.6% victory in all remaining states to secure the nomination! I think this may be one of the few things that both Berners and Clintonistas could agree on: that that is impossible. But to those of you that are thinking, “John! This is terrible” or “Haha! Take that, Sanders!” I would reply: You are both wrong. Mostly. Let me explain:

First off, let’s acknowledge that the math seems to prohibit both candidates from securing the nomination before the convention — so what does this mean? This means that, since Sanders will not give up before the convention, there will almost certainly be a “contested convention.”

“Um… But John…” you may be saying, “Won’t Hillary still be miles ahead of Sanders in votes at the convention?”

To which I would reply: I’m glad you asked, my paid Hillary-supporter friend! Allow me to demonstrate how that will also not be the case, no matter what the media would have you believe. Follow me!

Since neither of them will be securing the 2,383 needed for the nomination, let’s take a look at another number that has been hiding in plain sight for far too long. I’d like you to meet the number, 4,051. That’s the number of total pledged delegates that are available from all 50 states, plus DC, US territories, and the Democrats abroad. As it should be obvious, a majority of these delegates would be 2,026 because:

4,051 ÷ 2 = 2,025.5

At the convention, this number is going to matter more than the unattainable 2,383 delegates that no one will have. That being the case, let’s take a look at what Bernie Sanders would have to do to get there. If Sanders won 60% of the remaining contests (and remember how 475 of 1,016 are in California, where Sanders will do well), then the numbers at the convention would look like this:

1,016 x .60 = 609.6

Round that to 610 and add it to Sanders current total of 1,371, then divide that by the total delegate count, 4,051:

610 + 1,371 = 1,981

1,981 ÷ 4,051 = .489 or 48.9%

So, in the scenario where Sanders takes about 60% of the remaining vote, we’re essentially looking at a 49 to 51% vote total at the convention — not so bad, eh? And that’s easily within Sanders’ reach, if we do well in California (which we almost certainly will). Let’s look at what happens if he takes 70% (just like he did last time we went to the West/Left Coast):

1,016 x .70 = 711.2, round it down to 711, then:

711 + 1,371 = 2,082

2,082 ÷ 4,051 = 0.513 or 51.3%

If Sanders took 70%, the convention would look like 51.3 to 48.7%, in favor of Sanders! But 70%, while possible, is a bit of a stretch — the new magic number, for Sanders anyway, is actually 64.4% of the remaining states, which would mean winning 655 of the 1,016 remaining delegates, pushing his total up to 2,026, the bare majority of delegates, leaving Clinton one delegate behind at 2,025.

Now, does Sanders winning 64.4% sound too far-fetched? Not particularly, especially when we consider his advantages on the Left Coast, in California’s 475 delegate semi-open primary. An uphill climb, though? Certainly. Remember, though: it is all but certain that Clinton will not secure the nomination, while Sanders supporters are going to be pouring into Philadelphia for the convention by the tens of thousands. Even if Bernie fell short by a few points, we’re still essentially looking at a tie. And that’s when all hell is going to break loose.

Things are going to become very interesting if we have a near-tie at the convention to be decided by the super-delegates.

Things are going to become very interesting when they look back at the many states that are still crying out for a re-vote, states fraught with “voting irregularities,” polling station closures, and voter roll purges — all states which Clinton won and all states which so far have not received justice.

Things are going to become very interesting when the DNC and the super-delegates realize that Sanders, unlike the Wallstreet-backed Clinton-Machine, will bring in not only millions of independent voters that were unable to vote in the primaries, but even defecting Republican votes, sealing the GOP’s utter defeat in November.

Things are going to become very interesting when, while they are thinking about all of these things, they are doing so to the earth-shaking, thunderous chants of“Bernie! Bernie! Bernie!” from his tens of thousands of supporters outside, who have time-and-again proven their ability to rally by the tens of thousands — do you think that we won’t do the same at the convention?

And finally, things are going to become very, very interesting when the super-delegates and the DNC are forced to choose, publicly, whether to hand the nomination to Clinton and watch the millions of independents walk away, along with millions of former-democrat Sanders-supporters, basically handing the general election to the neo-fascists Trump or Cruz — or, to hand it to Sanders, a leader who will have the support, not only of the entire Democratic Party, but of millions of Independents, Green Party voters, and — yes, indeed — even Republicans defecting from the extremist GOP. That will be the most interesting part, I think. I’ll see you all in Philadelphia.

In Solidarity,
John Laurits

P.S. Please feel totally free to reproduce this article, re-post, re-use, re-cycle, or whatever, in whole or in part — credit would be lovely but, ultimately, I don’t really care! Do as ye will! Peace!

#SeeYouInPhilly

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets/follow_button.5e2061bafc51180fc22440a98a3560bf.en.html#dnt=false&id=twitter-widget-0&lang=en&screen_name=JohnLaurits&show_count=false&show_screen_name=true&size=m&time=1462888792714EDIT: I’ve written a follow-up article to address some of the comments because I don’t have enough time to respond to them all — thanks for reading! CLICK FOR PART TWO

EDIT #2: For the updated math, CLICK FOR “INDIANA: THE AFTER-MATH”

†I have not counted the so-called “super-delegates” because they do not vote until the convention, which you might not know because of the media’s disgustingly corrupt attempt to warp the public’s perception of the election.

*All numbers pulled from the Green Papers, today 4/28/2016, at:http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/D-PU.phtml

**Also, John has just joined Twitter (finally) and you may follow him and send him pictures of your dinner and crappy mainstream media math to debunk @JohnLaurits. You can buy John coffee here.

 

Why Vote for Bernie (2)

It still enrages me that it’s up to Trump to call Hillary on her husband’s record.  I mean NAFTA was a poerrful error in favor of the owners of the means of production, and against the workers of the USA< and everywhere else, with their wage-slave wages.

 

Why didn’t Bernie blast Hillary about the fact that her husband doubled the jail population via: racist enforcement of drug laws, shipping away jobs, and then both allowing sub prime loans, AND taking away a great hunk of the safety net for the unemployed?

 

 

And this is prime too:

 

This is What Will Happen at the Democratic Convention

 

better math image

Can Sanders do it? Or is Clinton truly inevitable?

Math vs. Media: Part One

Bernie Sanders has vowed to fight relentlessly for the 2016 Democratic Party’s nomination up to the convention and, despite the apparent consensus of the media’s talking heads that the campaign is a lost cause, he has held fast to his claim that there is a “narrow path to victory.” I am reminded of Galadriel’s ominous words of advice, in the Fellowship of the Ring: The quest stands upon the edge of a knife — stray but a little, and it will fail…

It has even become something of a weekly occurrence for Hillary Clinton and her Wallstreet-backed campaign to imply, insinuate, or flat-out demand that Sanders withdraw his bid for the nomination — they are growing increasingly indignant about the fact that Sanders is trying to win. Which brings us to the heart of the issue — can Bernie Sanders–can we–win the delegates needed for the nomination?

The answer to this question is as simple as it is misleading — No. No, my friends, we cannot. And yet–! And yet, neither can Hillary Clinton — and I am going to show you what the media is willfully hiding from you. I am going to show you why, using the one thing that even the media can’t hide: Math.

Why Clinton Will Not Secure the Nomination, According to Math

According to the Green Papers, Clinton stands (today, April 28th) with 1,664 pledged delegates, while Sanders has gathered 1,371. The amount of delegates needed to secure the nomination is 2,383 and, if you’ll pardon me for my use of arithmetic, I will now demonstrate why that number is hopelessly out of reach for the Clinton campaign.†

Hillary needs 719 more delegates to reach 2,383 because:

2,383 – 1,664 = 719

Now, the pledged delegates that are available to grab in the remaining states all-together amount to 1,016 and in order to attain that blessed number, Clinton will have to win an average of 70.7% of the remaining states. This is because:

719 ÷ 1,016 = 0.707677 or approximately 71%

You might be thinking that 71% is not such an unattainable number for Hillary and her powerful Wallstreet backers — you might be thinking that but you’d be betting against longer odds than would be wise. You see, of the 1,016 delegates remaining, 475 of those delegates are to be won in California, alone — California, which has a semi-open primary. California, where Clinton is polling at a mere 49%. California, where Clinton’s support has been declining as the Sanders Campaign gains visibility and momentum. California — the ace that Sanders, as much as the media, have concealed up his sleeve.

It is no secret that Sanders, a previously invisible independent senator from the tiny state of Vermont, consistently climbs in the polls as he begins to campaign in the weeks before each state has had its primary. You don’t have to take my word for it — check the poll-histories for yourself or read this.

Because Bernie Sanders performs at his absolute best in open primaries and because he consistently rises in the polls, while Clinton consistently falls, it is extremely unlikely that Clinton will perform better than 49 points, let alone win the contest. Let’s do some more math:

Of the 475 delegates available in California on June 7th, lets say Hillary takes 49% of those (even though she will almost certainly take less). That would give her 232.75 delegates, which we’ll round up to an even 234.

475 x 0.49 = 232.75

Next, let’s add that to her current total of 1,664, bringing her up to 1,897. Now, she needs an additional 486 delegates to reach the magic number of 2,383, right? Let’s find out how many delegates Clinton would have to win in the remaining states (besides California, of course).

Of the 541 delegates left, once the 475 CA delegates have been subtracted from the 1,016 delegate total, Clinton is going to have to win almost 90% of the remaining non-California delegates! This is because, when you divide the number of delegates that Clinton needs after California by the number of delegates remaining after California, you get 0.898 or 89%, rounded down:

486 ÷ 541 = 0.898 or 89.8%

Now, how likely does that sound? It’s not likely in Oregon, a fairly progressive state that shares its general attitudes with Washington, a state that Sanders won with about 70% of the vote. It’s not likely in West Virginia, either, where Sanders is currently leading in the polls. Nor is it likely in Indiana where Sanders and Clinton are almost neck-and-neck, which votes on May 3rd. That nomination is feeling a lot further away now, isn’t it?

Okay, okay — maybe you’re thinking, “John, I think you’re being unfair, Clinton could certainly win California.” To which I would reply: I admire your optimism, my friend — and since you’re so optimistic, let’s run those numbers again — but this time, let’s assume that Clinton, for whatever reason, defies the consistent trends that have prevailed over the entire primary season. Let’s say, she jumps up 11% now, winning the California primary with 60% of the vote. So:

475 x 0.6 = 285

Now, add the 285 delegates to Clinton’s current total:

285 + 1,664 = 1,949

But:

2,383 – 1,949 = 434

So, Clinton will still need to scrape up 434 delegates somewhere other than California, some how. Which means — Hold on, first we have to figure out how much of the remaining delegates she’ll have to win:

434 ÷ 541 = .802218 or 80%

Wow! Even if Clinton actually wins California with 60% to Sanders with 40%, she will still have to secure about 80% of the remaining vote! Again, this certainly doesn’t seem likely in Oregon, West Virginia, or Indiana, which means the actual percentage would climb each time she failed to take 80% of a state! Now, are you starting to see why I am saying that Clinton will not be securing the nomination before the convention?

Why Sanders Will Win, According to Math

If you’ve found yourself thinking, “Well, Sanders won’t secure the nomination, either!” You are almost 100% right! Well, 99.6% right, anyway. Because, if we take Sanders’ current delegate total of 1,371, subtract that from the magic 2,383, then divide that by the remaining available delegates, we get 0.996, see:

2,383 – 1,371 = 1,012

1,012 ÷ 1,016 = 0.996 or 99.6%

Therefore, Sanders would have to secure a whopping 99.6% victory in all remaining states to secure the nomination! I think this may be one of the few things that both Berners and Clintonistas could agree on: that that is impossible. But to those of you that are thinking, “John! This is terrible” or “Haha! Take that, Sanders!” I would reply: You are both wrong. Mostly. Let me explain:

First off, let’s acknowledge that the math seems to prohibit both candidates from securing the nomination before the convention — so what does this mean? This means that, since Sanders will not give up before the convention, there will almost certainly be a “contested convention.”

“Um… But John…” you may be saying, “Won’t Hillary still be miles ahead of Sanders in votes at the convention?”

To which I would reply: I’m glad you asked, my paid Hillary-supporter friend! Allow me to demonstrate how that will also not be the case, no matter what the media would have you believe. Follow me!

Since neither of them will be securing the 2,383 needed for the nomination, let’s take a look at another number that has been hiding in plain sight for far too long. I’d like you to meet the number, 4,051. That’s the number of total pledged delegates that are available from all 50 states, plus DC, US territories, and the Democrats abroad. As it should be obvious, a majority of these delegates would be 2,026 because:

4,051 ÷ 2 = 2,025.5

At the convention, this number is going to matter more than the unattainable 2,383 delegates that no one will have. That being the case, let’s take a look at what Bernie Sanders would have to do to get there. If Sanders won 60% of the remaining contests (and remember how 475 of 1,016 are in California, where Sanders will do well), then the numbers at the convention would look like this:

1,016 x .60 = 609.6

Round that to 610 and add it to Sanders current total of 1,371, then divide that by the total delegate count, 4,051:

610 + 1,371 = 1,981

1,981 ÷ 4,051 = .489 or 48.9%

So, in the scenario where Sanders takes about 60% of the remaining vote, we’re essentially looking at a 49 to 51% vote total at the convention — not so bad, eh? And that’s easily within Sanders’ reach, if we do well in California (which we almost certainly will). Let’s look at what happens if he takes 70% (just like he did last time we went to the West/Left Coast):

1,016 x .70 = 711.2, round it down to 711, then:

711 + 1,371 = 2,082

2,082 ÷ 4,051 = 0.513 or 51.3%

If Sanders took 70%, the convention would look like 51.3 to 48.7%, in favor of Sanders! But 70%, while possible, is a bit of a stretch — the new magic number, for Sanders anyway, is actually 64.4% of the remaining states, which would mean winning 655 of the 1,016 remaining delegates, pushing his total up to 2,026, the bare majority of delegates, leaving Clinton one delegate behind at 2,025.

Now, does Sanders winning 64.4% sound too far-fetched? Not particularly, especially when we consider his advantages on the Left Coast, in California’s 475 delegate semi-open primary. An uphill climb, though? Certainly. Remember, though: it is all but certain that Clinton will not secure the nomination, while Sanders supporters are going to be pouring into Philadelphia for the convention by the tens of thousands. Even if Bernie fell short by a few points, we’re still essentially looking at a tie. And that’s when all hell is going to break loose.

Things are going to become very interesting if we have a near-tie at the convention to be decided by the super-delegates.

Things are going to become very interesting when they look back at the many states that are still crying out for a re-vote, states fraught with “voting irregularities,” polling station closures, and voter roll purges — all states which Clinton won and all states which so far have not received justice.

Things are going to become very interesting when the DNC and the super-delegates realize that Sanders, unlike the Wallstreet-backed Clinton-Machine, will bring in not only millions of independent voters that were unable to vote in the primaries, but even defecting Republican votes, sealing the GOP’s utter defeat in November.

Things are going to become very interesting when, while they are thinking about all of these things, they are doing so to the earth-shaking, thunderous chants of“Bernie! Bernie! Bernie!” from his tens of thousands of supporters outside, who have time-and-again proven their ability to rally by the tens of thousands — do you think that we won’t do the same at the convention?

And finally, things are going to become very, very interesting when the super-delegates and the DNC are forced to choose, publicly, whether to hand the nomination to Clinton and watch the millions of independents walk away, along with millions of former-democrat Sanders-supporters, basically handing the general election to the neo-fascists Trump or Cruz — or, to hand it to Sanders, a leader who will have the support, not only of the entire Democratic Party, but of millions of Independents, Green Party voters, and — yes, indeed — even Republicans defecting from the extremist GOP. That will be the most interesting part, I think. I’ll see you all in Philadelphia.

In Solidarity,
John Laurits

P.S. Please feel totally free to reproduce this article, re-post, re-use, re-cycle, or whatever, in whole or in part — credit would be lovely but, ultimately, I don’t really care! Do as ye will! Peace!

#SeeYouInPhilly

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets/follow_button.5e2061bafc51180fc22440a98a3560bf.en.html#dnt=false&id=twitter-widget-0&lang=en&screen_name=JohnLaurits&show_count=false&show_screen_name=true&size=m&time=1462888792714EDIT: I’ve written a follow-up article to address some of the comments because I don’t have enough time to respond to them all — thanks for reading! CLICK FOR PART TWO

EDIT #2: For the updated math, CLICK FOR “INDIANA: THE AFTER-MATH”

†I have not counted the so-called “super-delegates” because they do not vote until the convention, which you might not know because of the media’s disgustingly corrupt attempt to warp the public’s perception of the election.

*All numbers pulled from the Green Papers, today 4/28/2016, at:http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/D-PU.phtml

**Also, John has just joined Twitter (finally) and you may follow him and send him pictures of your dinner and crappy mainstream media math to debunk @JohnLaurits. You can buy John coffee here.

Why Vote for Bernie? (1)

Please enjoy this brief video shot in my art studio (#131) at Golden Belt, Durham NC.

 

 

 

Dig the numbers!  Very strong stuff below

This is What Will Happen at the Democratic Convention

 

This is What Will Happen at the Democratic Convention

 

better math image

Can Sanders do it? Or is Clinton truly inevitable?

Math vs. Media: Part One

Bernie Sanders has vowed to fight relentlessly for the 2016 Democratic Party’s nomination up to the convention and, despite the apparent consensus of the media’s talking heads that the campaign is a lost cause, he has held fast to his claim that there is a “narrow path to victory.” I am reminded of Galadriel’s ominous words of advice, in the Fellowship of the Ring: The quest stands upon the edge of a knife — stray but a little, and it will fail…

It has even become something of a weekly occurrence for Hillary Clinton and her Wallstreet-backed campaign to imply, insinuate, or flat-out demand that Sanders withdraw his bid for the nomination — they are growing increasingly indignant about the fact that Sanders is trying to win. Which brings us to the heart of the issue — can Bernie Sanders–can we–win the delegates needed for the nomination?

The answer to this question is as simple as it is misleading — No. No, my friends, we cannot. And yet–! And yet, neither can Hillary Clinton — and I am going to show you what the media is willfully hiding from you. I am going to show you why, using the one thing that even the media can’t hide: Math.

Why Clinton Will Not Secure the Nomination, According to Math

According to the Green Papers, Clinton stands (today, April 28th) with 1,664 pledged delegates, while Sanders has gathered 1,371. The amount of delegates needed to secure the nomination is 2,383 and, if you’ll pardon me for my use of arithmetic, I will now demonstrate why that number is hopelessly out of reach for the Clinton campaign.†

Hillary needs 719 more delegates to reach 2,383 because:

2,383 – 1,664 = 719

Now, the pledged delegates that are available to grab in the remaining states all-together amount to 1,016 and in order to attain that blessed number, Clinton will have to win an average of 70.7% of the remaining states. This is because:

719 ÷ 1,016 = 0.707677 or approximately 71%

You might be thinking that 71% is not such an unattainable number for Hillary and her powerful Wallstreet backers — you might be thinking that but you’d be betting against longer odds than would be wise. You see, of the 1,016 delegates remaining, 475 of those delegates are to be won in California, alone — California, which has a semi-open primary. California, where Clinton is polling at a mere 49%. California, where Clinton’s support has been declining as the Sanders Campaign gains visibility and momentum. California — the ace that Sanders, as much as the media, have concealed up his sleeve.

It is no secret that Sanders, a previously invisible independent senator from the tiny state of Vermont, consistently climbs in the polls as he begins to campaign in the weeks before each state has had its primary. You don’t have to take my word for it — check the poll-histories for yourself or read this.

Because Bernie Sanders performs at his absolute best in open primaries and because he consistently rises in the polls, while Clinton consistently falls, it is extremely unlikely that Clinton will perform better than 49 points, let alone win the contest. Let’s do some more math:

Of the 475 delegates available in California on June 7th, lets say Hillary takes 49% of those (even though she will almost certainly take less). That would give her 232.75 delegates, which we’ll round up to an even 234.

475 x 0.49 = 232.75

Next, let’s add that to her current total of 1,664, bringing her up to 1,897. Now, she needs an additional 486 delegates to reach the magic number of 2,383, right? Let’s find out how many delegates Clinton would have to win in the remaining states (besides California, of course).

Of the 541 delegates left, once the 475 CA delegates have been subtracted from the 1,016 delegate total, Clinton is going to have to win almost 90% of the remaining non-California delegates! This is because, when you divide the number of delegates that Clinton needs after California by the number of delegates remaining after California, you get 0.898 or 89%, rounded down:

486 ÷ 541 = 0.898 or 89.8%

Now, how likely does that sound? It’s not likely in Oregon, a fairly progressive state that shares its general attitudes with Washington, a state that Sanders won with about 70% of the vote. It’s not likely in West Virginia, either, where Sanders is currently leading in the polls. Nor is it likely in Indiana where Sanders and Clinton are almost neck-and-neck, which votes on May 3rd. That nomination is feeling a lot further away now, isn’t it?

Okay, okay — maybe you’re thinking, “John, I think you’re being unfair, Clinton could certainly win California.” To which I would reply: I admire your optimism, my friend — and since you’re so optimistic, let’s run those numbers again — but this time, let’s assume that Clinton, for whatever reason, defies the consistent trends that have prevailed over the entire primary season. Let’s say, she jumps up 11% now, winning the California primary with 60% of the vote. So:

475 x 0.6 = 285

Now, add the 285 delegates to Clinton’s current total:

285 + 1,664 = 1,949

But:

2,383 – 1,949 = 434

So, Clinton will still need to scrape up 434 delegates somewhere other than California, some how. Which means — Hold on, first we have to figure out how much of the remaining delegates she’ll have to win:

434 ÷ 541 = .802218 or 80%

Wow! Even if Clinton actually wins California with 60% to Sanders with 40%, she will still have to secure about 80% of the remaining vote! Again, this certainly doesn’t seem likely in Oregon, West Virginia, or Indiana, which means the actual percentage would climb each time she failed to take 80% of a state! Now, are you starting to see why I am saying that Clinton will not be securing the nomination before the convention?

Why Sanders Will Win, According to Math

If you’ve found yourself thinking, “Well, Sanders won’t secure the nomination, either!” You are almost 100% right! Well, 99.6% right, anyway. Because, if we take Sanders’ current delegate total of 1,371, subtract that from the magic 2,383, then divide that by the remaining available delegates, we get 0.996, see:

2,383 – 1,371 = 1,012

1,012 ÷ 1,016 = 0.996 or 99.6%

Therefore, Sanders would have to secure a whopping 99.6% victory in all remaining states to secure the nomination! I think this may be one of the few things that both Berners and Clintonistas could agree on: that that is impossible. But to those of you that are thinking, “John! This is terrible” or “Haha! Take that, Sanders!” I would reply: You are both wrong. Mostly. Let me explain:

First off, let’s acknowledge that the math seems to prohibit both candidates from securing the nomination before the convention — so what does this mean? This means that, since Sanders will not give up before the convention, there will almost certainly be a “contested convention.”

“Um… But John…” you may be saying, “Won’t Hillary still be miles ahead of Sanders in votes at the convention?”

To which I would reply: I’m glad you asked, my paid Hillary-supporter friend! Allow me to demonstrate how that will also not be the case, no matter what the media would have you believe. Follow me!

Since neither of them will be securing the 2,383 needed for the nomination, let’s take a look at another number that has been hiding in plain sight for far too long. I’d like you to meet the number, 4,051. That’s the number of total pledged delegates that are available from all 50 states, plus DC, US territories, and the Democrats abroad. As it should be obvious, a majority of these delegates would be 2,026 because:

4,051 ÷ 2 = 2,025.5

At the convention, this number is going to matter more than the unattainable 2,383 delegates that no one will have. That being the case, let’s take a look at what Bernie Sanders would have to do to get there. If Sanders won 60% of the remaining contests (and remember how 475 of 1,016 are in California, where Sanders will do well), then the numbers at the convention would look like this:

1,016 x .60 = 609.6

Round that to 610 and add it to Sanders current total of 1,371, then divide that by the total delegate count, 4,051:

610 + 1,371 = 1,981

1,981 ÷ 4,051 = .489 or 48.9%

So, in the scenario where Sanders takes about 60% of the remaining vote, we’re essentially looking at a 49 to 51% vote total at the convention — not so bad, eh? And that’s easily within Sanders’ reach, if we do well in California (which we almost certainly will). Let’s look at what happens if he takes 70% (just like he did last time we went to the West/Left Coast):

1,016 x .70 = 711.2, round it down to 711, then:

711 + 1,371 = 2,082

2,082 ÷ 4,051 = 0.513 or 51.3%

If Sanders took 70%, the convention would look like 51.3 to 48.7%, in favor of Sanders! But 70%, while possible, is a bit of a stretch — the new magic number, for Sanders anyway, is actually 64.4% of the remaining states, which would mean winning 655 of the 1,016 remaining delegates, pushing his total up to 2,026, the bare majority of delegates, leaving Clinton one delegate behind at 2,025.

Now, does Sanders winning 64.4% sound too far-fetched? Not particularly, especially when we consider his advantages on the Left Coast, in California’s 475 delegate semi-open primary. An uphill climb, though? Certainly. Remember, though: it is all but certain that Clinton will not secure the nomination, while Sanders supporters are going to be pouring into Philadelphia for the convention by the tens of thousands. Even if Bernie fell short by a few points, we’re still essentially looking at a tie. And that’s when all hell is going to break loose.

Things are going to become very interesting if we have a near-tie at the convention to be decided by the super-delegates.

Things are going to become very interesting when they look back at the many states that are still crying out for a re-vote, states fraught with “voting irregularities,” polling station closures, and voter roll purges — all states which Clinton won and all states which so far have not received justice.

Things are going to become very interesting when the DNC and the super-delegates realize that Sanders, unlike the Wallstreet-backed Clinton-Machine, will bring in not only millions of independent voters that were unable to vote in the primaries, but even defecting Republican votes, sealing the GOP’s utter defeat in November.

Things are going to become very interesting when, while they are thinking about all of these things, they are doing so to the earth-shaking, thunderous chants of“Bernie! Bernie! Bernie!” from his tens of thousands of supporters outside, who have time-and-again proven their ability to rally by the tens of thousands — do you think that we won’t do the same at the convention?

And finally, things are going to become very, very interesting when the super-delegates and the DNC are forced to choose, publicly, whether to hand the nomination to Clinton and watch the millions of independents walk away, along with millions of former-democrat Sanders-supporters, basically handing the general election to the neo-fascists Trump or Cruz — or, to hand it to Sanders, a leader who will have the support, not only of the entire Democratic Party, but of millions of Independents, Green Party voters, and — yes, indeed — even Republicans defecting from the extremist GOP. That will be the most interesting part, I think. I’ll see you all in Philadelphia.

In Solidarity,
John Laurits

P.S. Please feel totally free to reproduce this article, re-post, re-use, re-cycle, or whatever, in whole or in part — credit would be lovely but, ultimately, I don’t really care! Do as ye will! Peace!

#SeeYouInPhilly

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets/follow_button.5e2061bafc51180fc22440a98a3560bf.en.html#dnt=false&id=twitter-widget-0&lang=en&screen_name=JohnLaurits&show_count=false&show_screen_name=true&size=m&time=1462888792714EDIT: I’ve written a follow-up article to address some of the comments because I don’t have enough time to respond to them all — thanks for reading! CLICK FOR PART TWO

EDIT #2: For the updated math, CLICK FOR “INDIANA: THE AFTER-MATH”

†I have not counted the so-called “super-delegates” because they do not vote until the convention, which you might not know because of the media’s disgustingly corrupt attempt to warp the public’s perception of the election.

*All numbers pulled from the Green Papers, today 4/28/2016, at:http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/D-PU.phtml

**Also, John has just joined Twitter (finally) and you may follow him and send him pictures of your dinner and crappy mainstream media math to debunk @JohnLaurits. You can buy John coffee here.

Stuber Haiku #312

Stuber Haiku # 312

William walks hands in the air

praying to survive.

He’s unarmed,

terrorized by our

militarized police force.

“Stand back, get

down, hands behind your

back! “What did you say?”

“Don’t move an inch!” He

walks away, pocket knife in

hand, no threat, sixteen bullets

worth of dead, the new

dead; fascism lays

wide open for us to see,

yet Trump gains

followers, choices

all as bad, but one,

and he’s not gonna

get nominated, if you

follow me.

Driving while black changed. Walking

while black is

now a felony

punishable by

instant death.

Jump back privileged poet boy.

Words are not

enough, nor protests

nor votes.  Unite now!

1/16/16 Weymouth, Southern Pines, NC, with Metta Sema Melvin as prompter.

A Second Language Christmas

A Second Language Christmas

We teach because we believe communication creates
enough community to turn this planet from disaster
back to freedom. Away insipid fascist controllers of
everything from water to wages! OK we may not be aware
that our mission is to connect souls, to establish local
beach-heads of trust and mutual satisfaction that present

an option far different than the one prescribed by WTO

edicts, winner-take-all capitalism. Ever notice how those
standardized tests squeeze minds into a world view that
works to optimum advantage as a cog down at X-Y-Z
factory? Sure it’s profit over people, in which horrors
fan out like paratroopers; of course it’s pollution and
war-tax, rotten neighborhoods, grandfather hauling a
day’s load of cardboard for 5 Bucks, 5,000 Won, enough
for rice and a cold winter without electricity, dang it
where are the families? Ah, but this is a cheery Holiday
greeting, let’s go back to the language bridge so we can
help people spread the word about what’s really happening.
Come eat with us, let’s talk, let’s build dreams into reality
on our own terms, away from globalized mercantile Christmas.

The WTO is the World Trade Organization that towers above country’s sovereignty in naked, bold, pure, unsullied, un-monitored or regulated support of profits at the lowest possible labor costs available on the planet. It was invented by GATT II, the Global Agreement on Tariffs and Trade. It has lowered the value of labor considerably, while also making less people able to afford the products they make. This of course, can only be sustained via massive debt and the propping of certain markets by those building the products. (China lending to the USA comes to mind, then selling its products at Wal-Mart).

Fallujah Fandango

Fallujah Fandango

 

 

No greater power rose then fell so low

Than currently mounts the throne, an outhouse seat.

As, to itty bits the Middle East we blow.

 

It all started decades before San Bernadino

As bomb doors opened, Belgrade to Tekreet.

No greater power rose then fell so low.

 

Before the next attack, the people pack and go

Through Macedonia or Crete.

As, to itty bits the Middle East we blow.

 

The drone scout screams “Look out below!”

Refugees submit to smuggling cheats.

No greater power rose then fell so low.

 

So gather near, learn how to fix, and build and grow.

Cherish these the last days of the feast.

No greater power rose then fell so low.

As, to itty bits the Middle East we blow.

Christmas 2006…

Christmas 2006 (7?, 8?, 9?…2012)

(All Together now, in Chipmunk-esque squeals, just like Alvin and the Chipmunks have sung it since the 60s)

Christmas comes but once a year,
soldiers bloodied, Mother’s tears,
bombs exploding in the air,
it’s Christmas everywhere!

Barons sipping booze or tea,
greed leads to frivolity,
one man’s toil is another-kids toy,
it’s Christmas in Hanoi.

Farm girls walk to city lights,
paddies shimmer by moonlight,
no one left to grow rice high,
it’s Christmas in Shanghai.

Now she sits at sewing machines,
making clothes for Wal-Mart Queens
she takes home a buck a day,
it’s Christmas in Bombay. (Mumbai)

One hundred forty hour weeks,
raped and left no food to eat,
import maids, Sri Lanka’s poor,
it’s Christmas Singapore.

Catholic Mass in Spanish here,
Argentina has great fear
The IMF has had their say
Guess who is going to pay?

Now the Dems have won their seats
still no nerve to scream “impeach,”
It seems they’re also on the take,
Which SUCKS for goodness sake!

Bush is set on World War three
claims tax cuts will set us free
Look, a tear in Laura’s eye
The Whitehouse is a sty.

Habeas Corpus is long gone
Now King George can have his fun
The law was passed here just in time
To root-out left-wing slime.

Osama thumbs his princely nose
Knowing Dad is Bush’s Bro,
The oil secured keeps China at bay
It’s Christmas all the way.

Now Osama’s dead and gone
Who will be the next war pawn?
Syria, Libya, Iran, no WAIT!
Christmas is way past late.

Barack Obama’s our new man
He spreads the war to Pakistan,
Drones are flying up above
Spreading Christmas love.

So go out and shop some more
Buy something from every store
The fascist status quo gains power
with every shopping hour.

Christmas comes but once a year,
Bloodied soldiers, Mother’s tears,
bombs exploding in the air
it’s Christmas everywhere!

Bombs exploding in the air
It’s Christmas everywhere!

Copyright, Doug Stuber, 2006, 2012. Unauthorized use and/or duplication of this material without express and written permission from this blog’s author and/or owner is strictly prohibited. Excerpts and links may be used, provided that full and clear credit is given, and with appropriate and specific direction to the original content.

Dance of Ants

 

Opus 27, 1977, Stockbridge, MA

Opus 27, 1977, Stockbridge, MA

 

Dance of ants compiling sawdust, compels us to

Trample, mow, flee to the inviting woods.  Our short

Caravan meanders, leans against boulder, attached lichen here

Crash down on leaves and rocks waiting for dark,

Bare stars, glowing mosses, a second light show that

Regales millipedes, azaleas, forsythia.  Outdoor sounds

Jar us awake, it’s 2am, we rise in dew-sparkled clothes,

Veering through trees, over rotten wood and rock holes, a deer

Kicks a whip, or jumps, startled by late-night intruders mistaken

For hunters.  You can’t know it now, but this night marks the

Epicenter of your youth, from which all events will emanate

Without outward boundary, but in three hundred sixty

Degrees. Bound into it all, bring that screwgee* low and inside.

 

First Letters represent those in attendance 11/13/2015:

Dave Manning

Tom Hines

Clark Holtzman

Conrad newman

Bennett Myers

Robert Katrin

Johnette

Vanessa Vendola,

Kitty Bergel

Frank Doonan

Elio Soldi

Will Hubband

Doug Stuber

 

*A Screwgee is a reverse curve ball thrown in baseball that spins in toward right handed batters from a right handed pitcher.

 

 

or

 

Liebster Award: a conversation starter and major ego boost?

I was nominated for a Liebster…again!  Wow this is so amazing.

Drop to the bottom of this blog to see if you were nominated by me.

erospea.wordpress.com  aka Spaginazioni Poetiche aka Dora

is the beautiful woman who nominated me.

The Liebster logo looks like this:

untitled

her questions to me are these:

My questions to nominees (plus Doug’s answers):

  1. What is your view on ‘”intercultural”?

If everyone were intercultural and studied more about each other’s cultures, the world would have a chance of being more peaceful IF, and it’s giant IF, those in control at the top actually gave a hoot about how those regular folks feel. Sadly, there is always an excuse for war, at least in the minds of those representing war profits in their jobs as professional elected officials.  Thus in many governments, but most importantly the big powerful ones (See USA, China, Russia, Japan, and Saudi Arabia first) those making decisions are fully owned subsidiaries of big corporate business.  Democracy cannot, or has not, been able to change this.

2) If I say “gestural language”?

Then I think body language, and at the precise moment someone else is falling in love with you they will say it with their body (their eyes, reaching a hand toward you, etc.) first, mouth and words second.  OK maybe even mouth before words if the attraction is strong enough.  Gestural language is more than ballet or giving someone the finger then, by a long shot.  You can really commune with wild animals if both you and the critter believe in gestures.
3)  Your own reflection on the “nomadism”

I have lived in 16 cities since I was 16 years old.  All of my own volition except two.  Traveling and WORKING in other cultures is a great way to live a full life.  I want to know how Ms. or mister “Jo/Joe on the street” sees the world, what influences them, and why.  Tourist, no.  Live there for a year+, yes.
4) Tell me something about your culture of belonging

My culture is a violent, yet caring, warmongering, yet peace donating, hate yet love kinda place.  Some of the great benefactors of the world came from the USA, after they made money by underpaying workers and raping the environment.  Such potential, often wasted on spending zillions on foreign wars.
5) What is your thought on “religion”?

I think spirituality is worth seeking out and getting better at.  it’s nice to try to commune with “the Creator,” but most religions falter when fundamentalists take over.  Hence, “which is worse, a fundamentalist Christian or a fundamentalist Muslim?”  Answer:  they are equally despicable, and are leading their legions down the path to continual war…not a path found in the books of either religion.  Dang war hounds.


6) If I tell you “childhood”?

Childhood is to be supported and encouraged throughout everyone’s lives.  Especially the lives of children.  Education is important, but so is walking around and learning things from nature on your own.  It’s hard to be functioning at a high level if your parents did all the chores for you so you could study or practice music ONLY.  If we allow our children some time to learn about how things work THEMSELVES, they will be able to learn anything they put their minds too.  Keep them away from electronics and out in the field.


7) Do you have a dream?

My dream is that one day my art or music actually is recognized by someone other than myself.  To that extent, even when I was playing music in bar bands, there have ALWAYS been people who supported my creativity.  That’s the miracle you have to believe in to keep going.  You won’t always get in the New Yorker or the Whitney Biennale, but if someone ever asks for a copy of the poem you just read, or buys or accepts as a gift your art, or cheers for the song you just played, dance you just danced, speech you delivered with panache…then soak it in and keep it rolling.  Teaching is like a continual boost of your ideas, if in the right school.  My dream is to sit at a simple meal or tea and talk to people I agree with: learn something from those I disagree with.


8) What role do you think the “Art” can play in society in relation to the your local context and in a broader view?

Art, like anything, is in the eye of the beholder.  The world has thousands of protests artists, musicians, poets, novelists, but it depends who sees it, hears it, takes it in and is influenced by it.  In some cultures art is quite important, in others people make art almost in a vacuum.  In the end, the universe takes care of artists…I don’t know how, but it works.  As a society, any given culture would be wise to listen to its artists, to support them, as without creativity, many become a burden on society.  is it better to support an artists who only paints or sculpts or dances, and is dirt poor because they spend their whole lives with their craft, refusing to wait on tables?  or is it better to watch someone become dejected because THEY ARE NOT FOLLOWING THEIR DREAMS, and then commit a crime, or do harm to themselves?  Easy answer here:  support who you can in their dreams because that puts you on the path of realizing your own.


9) What is your idea about “sexuality”?

I think sex is great.  Those who deny it are missing out on God’s gift.  The Native Americans who walked my space in upstate New York years ago, were naturalists in their spirituality.  To them, at least as far as I know, making love was the highest homage to the Creator.  Easy to understand:  it’s because making love (at least the traditional forms of sex) meant that you were joining the Creator in the miracle of life (or at least a chance of making a new life) and thus, if you love, and love your life, and love your mate’s life, producing a child is a way of spreading the love.  The Creator surely smiles on love making.  If you and your mate can’t spread the love via making a baby, you ARE however spreading the love amongst yourselves, and helping your mate to be at peace in the world, and helping society by being in love and showing others how good your love is.  Thus, sexuality, when coupled with love, is just about the best thing you can do in private that helps the public good.  If lucky, you find a partner who loves sex as much and as often as you do.


10) There is a place where you love to go when you want to feel peace and well-being?

Outside.  In the Woods.  I used to paint outside, I still write outside.  I can also be in pure bliss at my sons’s baseball game, or being a part of a crowd at a rock concert.Specifically, Canandaigua, New York, the lake, the hills, the creeks. It’s usually not where I go, but with whom I go.

Doug & Jim

And here are my nominees.  If you don’t want to play along, that’s fine.

soulspeak2013.wordpress.com

poetella.wordpress.com

toastandteatogether.wordpress.com

cristianmihai.wordpress.com

meandthe30dayproject.wordpress.com

nikkiskies.wordpress.com

lijiun.wordpress.com

patcegan.wordpress.com

thoughtcatalog.wordpress.com

momentarylapseofsanity.wordpress.com

AND YOUR QUESTIONS

  1. Can better communication save the world?
  2. Are all cultures equal, just different?  Or are some cultures stronger/better/more reasonable than others, and why?
  3. Name a philosophy/philosopher you agree with and why
  4. Don’t think long:  What is your favorite movie?
  5. If you could give one 30 minute speech that would create universal harmony among humans, what would the title be?  Or, write us the whole speech.
  6. Did you ever fall in love at first sight?  If so, explain, if not, what are the parameters that need to fall into place in order for you to fall in love?
  7. Your favorite flavor of ice cream.
  8. The teacher you remember most from grades 1-8, and why
  9. What do you want your children or your friends to remember most about you?
  10. Is it possible to rise above expectations, both cultural and familial, and make a unique life that is a positive light? If you’ve done that or are in the process, let us know how.

art music poetry #81

Pelican at take-off with Chick

Pelican at take-off with Chick

Tang Quest I – V

Red morning wind kicks
leaves over vegetable cage.
Felled white oak patiently
absorbs blade after blade.

Chunked wood magically
stacks upon self, against mud.
Sawdust darkens. Winter rain
slows work, allows love time.

Pond refills, frightened turtle
relaxes. Cool December water
welcomes geese and herons
to rolling clay-built hills.

Man and woman join; new
child cries, coos, sleeps.
Six point buck stops, observes,
moves slowly out of view.

Fog lifts, sun creeps past
logs, warms three thousand
trees, sixty moons past white
buffalo’s birth. Bonus time.

II

Colorful turkeys gather
under lit moon; feathers
diffract beams to cedars
lined, two rows; historical
trees whose dead branches
dangle predictions at pond’s
edge. Three run to flight,
circle, drop back, contrive,
spread; anticipate coming of
spring. Winter rain cuts fog.
Hilltop oaks sparkle when
wind pushes limbs through
ethereal mist sent down to
visit this New year’s Eve.

III

Hair-bellied bull
stands. Dainty tied-foot
girl spreads parasol.
Protrusion emerges from
hair; pillow placed,
dress-becomes-blanket;
fantasy or farm boy
hovers, slogs. Heavy
mud slows progress.
Results equal effort:
parasol quivers, wind
stiffens, girl rolls, wakes
inner spirit, follows
heart-made trail
to pastoral life.

IV

Respected grandfather ties
green maple branches,
nails joints, rakes
leaves onto compost,
works tools vigorously,
reads after dinner,
speaks less than one
paragraph per day.
He is bent over:
seventy-eight years
translating, teaching, gardening.
Happiness, not out of reach,
but produced by
simple living.

V

Watching ladybugs,
tuning to zen movement,
could transform one
overindulged son-in-law.
First he must learn to
separate men’s and women’s
tasks, no easy lesson
for western man.

art music poetry 64

Kicevo Opua 1708 on paperIMG_3902

Executed at the 2009 Kicevo, Macedonia Art Colony

Nine Slapper

Blue bird in the air,
Golden boy delights.
Skipping stones without a care,
Singing in the night.

Seagull pierces silence,
The dawn is on the rise.
Fishermen are busy
Watching for red skies.

River wanders, digging earth
Fertilizing soil.
Weekend mongers slobber
Spilling pints of oil.

Red-skinned native stands,
A reminder of the past.
Spearing fish and digging clams,
Hoping they will last.

Blue-eyed boy walks on,
Determined to have fun.
Lonely lovers cry,
Searching for the sun.

Art Music Poetry 62

Kicevo OPus 1682 or so IMG_3889

One made at the 2009 Kicevo, Macedonia Art colony

 

Great Expectations

 

Great expectations – great?

But what when the obvious happens?

A predictable animal grasps you

And throws you to the ground.

 

Thoughts of how nice it would be if . . .

Then they vanish like a dream when you wake up.

 

A floating reality teases your mind,

It is there but it may never reach you.

 

Written at age 12.

Art Music Poetry #61

unusual one, isn't it?

             unusual one, isn’t it?

Great Expectations

Great expectations – great?

But what when the obvious happens?

A predictable animal grasps you

And throws you to the ground.

Thoughts of how nice it would be if . . .

Then they vanish like a dream when you wake up.

A floating reality teases your mind,

It is there but it may never reach you.

Dogwood

Outreaching leaves of white

Directly over green.

How can it seem trite,

This wonderful nature machine?

Later, as the summer grows

Those greens come into life.

Spreading all the charm they know

While stealing the dogwood’s white.